My Daily Coffee Is Getting More Expensive!
Even As A Homebrewer
(or is it just inflations?)
Dear fellow caffeine enthusiasts,
If you are like me, you probably consider yourself savvy. We home brewers figured out the secret to consistent, high-quality coffee without draining our bank accounts on cafe visits every single day. We invested in the grinders, the pour-over kits, and the beautiful bags of beans, thinking we were safe from the daily cafe price hikes.
But lately, I’ve been hit with a reality check: my daily ritual is getting noticeably more expensive.
That familiar feeling when you walk into your local roaster and see the price tag on your favorite bag of beans has changed. If you’ve noticed this, you’re not alone. The cost of coffee, especially Arabica, has gone through the roof on international markets.
While some might argue that coffee is merely a “want,” for many daily drinkers, it is strongly felt as a “need”. Unfortunately, that “need” is now subject to massive global volatility.
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Why Is My Home Brew Costing So Much More?
We need to understand how the global coffee market directly affects our little corner of home brewing. The core issue revolves around the C-price—the global benchmark for commodity green coffee beans.
The recent numbers are staggering. On February 10, 2025, the Arabica C-price recorded an all-time high. This increase was around 126.32% year-on-year compared to February 2024.
Specialty coffee businesses, like the ones we buy our beans from, operate somewhat independently, as they always pay a premium for quality. However, they are not immune and still face serious ripple effects from C-price fluctuations. As raw bean costs increase, roasters must adjust pricing to maintain their quality and profitability.
For instance, one roaster mentioned that even though they initially absorbed rising costs for their clients, implementing a modest adjustment of less than 10% became necessary after the C-price nearly doubled. They refuse to compromise on quality or flavor, instead trying to navigate the hikes through exploring multiple trading options, such as negotiating a customized pulped natural lot as a strategic replacement for usual Brazilian coffees.
The Global Recipe for Disaster
So what’s driving this massive surge? It’s a complex mix of global factors.
Supply Struggles: Farmers are struggling to keep up with demand. This is fundamentally due to years of underpayment, which has left them unable to invest adequately in their farms.
Climate Change: You couple underpayment with the devastating effects of climate change, and you have a recipe for disaster. Adverse weather in major producing nations, such as Brazil and Vietnam, is reducing harvest totals by at least 3–6%. Recent studies tragically show that by 2050, nearly 50% of the global surface area currently used for coffee farming may no longer be suitable.
Market Pressure and Geopolitics: Other factors also drive price spikes, including currency fluctuations, shipping disruptions, and speculative trading. Geopolitical tensions are causing challenges across shipping routes, particularly impacting regions like East Africa. Tariffs imposed on leading exporters, like Brazil, also cause volatility and uncertainty in the market.
Increasing Demand: Despite all these challenges to supply, global coffee consumption rose by 4.2% in 2023, with further growth projected.
The Scale of the Market vs. My Mug
It is interesting to contrast the pain we feel as home brewers with the massive, high-volume market dynamics elsewhere. In places like China, where coffee has exploded from being a foreign novelty to a cultural staple, scale is everything.
In industrial hubs west of Shanghai, major chains like Starbucks and Luckin operate roasting factories that are massive—each capable of roasting over 30,000 tons of beans annually. Because these companies have such vast volume (enough to brew 2.7 billion cups of coffee a year), they possess enough “nego power” to request better quality coffee from the origins. This mastery of flavor delivered at industrial scale has powered their coffee boom.
While major chains battle price wars (sometimes driving prices as low as 9.90 RMB a cup), we independent homebrewers must navigate the increased cost of quality specialty beans on a much smaller scale.
Adjusting Expectations
The good news is that brewing at home remains one of the most cost-effective ways to enjoy great coffee. But the rising cost of raw beans raises an important question for all of us: Will we cut back on coffee, or will we adjust our expectations and budget to accommodate the price hike?.
Based on current projections, the C-price is expected to stabilize and decrease by 30% by the end of 2025. However, following the earlier 100% hike, this still represents an actual inflation of about 70% for 2025.
It seems the “inflation monster” will continue to loom. Now is truly the time to start thinking seriously about the future of our coffee habits. Even if we are brewing at home, we are undeniably linked to the volatile global market.